What is Really Happening with Home Prices?

    Home values have softened over the last twelve months. We are no longer seeing 6-7% annual appreciation levels for the national housing market. The current numbers are closer to 4%. Some have suggested that year-over-year appreciation levels could fall to 3% or less this year.

    However, a stronger-than-expected economy and a good spring housing market have changed some opinions. Some analysts are now predicting that home value appreciation may begin to increase as we move forward.

    Here are three examples:

    Mark Fleming, Chief Economist of First American

    “Data on the movement of unadjusted house prices during the early spring home-buying season won’t be available for a few more months, but it’s quite likely that price appreciation will accelerate again.”

    CoreLogic’s April “Home Price Insights

    “Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 3.7% in March 2019 compared with March 2018…The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 4.8% on a year-over-year basis from March 2019 to March 2020.”

    Pulsenomics’ Quarterly “Home Price Expectation Survey”

    • The 2018 4th Quarter survey called for 3.8% appreciation for 2019.
    • The 2019 1st Quarter survey raised the appreciation projection for this year to 4.3%.

    Bottom Line

    Price appreciation has slowed over the past year. However, a strong economy and a good housing market have many experts thinking that home values might re-accelerate moderately throughout the rest of this year.

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